Dealing With Chinese Adventurism

The Way Forward

By Col. C. M. Ramakrishnan

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Swapnil Hasabnis (SH) catches up with Colonel C. M. Ramakrishnan, retd. (CMR) to get his views on the latest developments on the Indo-China border and the prospects for the near future.

SH: Great to be able to speak to you again, sir. To begin, how would you summarise the situation as it stands at present?

CMR:

It came to light in May 2020 that the communist China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) had intruded into more than one area in Leh, moved in troops, vehicles, earth moving equipment and even set up structures on the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). India promptly took up the matter and wanted Chinese troops to withdraw to the positions and locations held by them in April.  Some understanding was arrived at the Corps level and the Chinese promised to pull back from the positions occupied by them post April. Galwan Valley was one of the areas into which the Chinese had intruded. When the Indian troops went over to confirm that the Chinese had actually withdrawn, they were suddenly attacked by the Chinese without warning. Details of how and why the Indian troops did not use their weapons and protect themselves is not known. That the Indians fought back bare handed and still inflicted heavy casualties on the Chinese attackers is small consolation.

The Galwan valley clash took place on 15/16 June when 20 Indian officers and other ranks  were killed and over 60 wounded. A court of Inquiry has been ordered, however the full details not released to the public yet.

Even though there have been repeated news of skirmishes between Indian Army (IA) and PLA on the LAC, the violence on this scale had not been seen since 1968 at the Indo Tibet border. This sent a jolt down the spine of the entire nation, with speculations if the Chinese incursions and open aggression are a repeat of 1962. Subsequently, the Government of India was compelled to relook at the continuing unstable state of affairs on the LAC. Initially, as per the normal practice set over the decades, ‘meetings’, ‘discussions’ and parleys were mounted between the commanders of both armies at various levels. There have been discussions at the level of External Affairs  Ministers S Jaishankar and his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi.

SH: There has been heavy military build-up along the Indo-Chinese border following the Galwan Valley clash. How do you visualise this will pan out? What exactly can India anticipate?

CMR:

Current Situation on LAC

Indian Army Chief General Manoj M. Narwane said on Sept 4 that the “situation along the LAC is slightly tense”. One may wonder if that is that an understatement!)

Even while meetings were going on for deescalation at the level of corps commanders (5 meetings since June 20), the Chinese reportedly moved large number of troops including armoured vehicles i.e. tanks and heavy guns in the area. China started to move troops all along the ~3,440 km border shared with India.

Over 17,000 Chinese troops along with tanks are said to have been moved into the Dipsang area alone. India has also strengthened its brigade on location by moving additional troops and tanks. India now has a division (15,000 troops approx.) plus armour stationed  in that area. Similar enhancement of over 45,000 troops has been carried out not only in Ladakh but also in other sectors including Arunachal Pradesh. Indian troops are supported by artillery and armour. Stocking of ammunition and supplies is being carried out on top priority in all sectors.

Lines of communication are being strengthened. Atal Tunnel on the Manali Leh all-weather Road is slated to be inaugurated by Prime Minister Modi in the middle of September. All approach roads are being widened up to cater to additional traffic of men, material and supplies.

Indian army has started taking initiatives for occupation of the heights that will give tactical superiority. (This saw China threatening repercussions). These moves saw success as Indian Army occupied heights overlooking Chinese army positions at Finger 4, including the critically important Green top, in a pre-emptive action to near the southern bank of Pangong lake last week.

Indian Air Force in conjunction with the Indian army is also deploying for defensive and offensive action. Even more striking is, the dispatch of an Indian naval ship to South China Sea and deployment of Indian naval vessels in the Malacca straits area. The Indian Navy has reportedly deployed one of its frontline warships in the South China Sea soon after the Galwan clash which took place on 15 July, much to China’s angst. Indian naval vessels established communication with the American fleet deployed in the SCS.

These acts of induction of forces in land, sea and air are of purely defensive nature, but may be seen as a clear signal to the aggressive Chinese leadership that their ploy of threats and bullying are not unacceptable to India. (At last the Indian worm appears to be turning!) Obviously, the Chinese, who have been so used to a meek and subservient Indian behaviour since the last six decades are not happy and incensed beyond belief. The Chinese Communist Party (CCP) mouthpiece ‘Global Times’, which is affiliated to the ruling Communist Party’s mouthpiece ‘People’s Daily’, has threatened India with dire consequences , and a disastrous repeat of 1962.

SH: What exactly can India anticipate?

CMR:

Even while expressing willingness to negotiate with China, India should assume that there will be No De-escalation. Chinese communist army will continue to be in their locations using ‘talks, ‘meetings’ etc. as a ploy. The aim of PLA is to tire out the Indian army. Indian troops will have to sit out the winter and China expects India to let down its guard sooner or later.

Meanwhile china will very likely take steps to prod Pakistan into initiating action at the Indo-Pak border, especially to destabilise Kashmir valley. CCP is bound to unleash its propaganda machinery internationally, notably in USA and EU, where it already has a strong hold on print media, like New York Times and Washington Post. The Chinese are placing their bets on the fluid state of US government at present taking full advantage of diluted attention on international affairs of the current president on account of his election campaign. They will pin their hopes on a win for the Democrats under Joe Biden in the US elections, which is likely to make USA much more amenable to  them and diminish considerably the support for India.

CCP will also try to galvanise the Maoists, communist sympathisers, jihadis and the ‘urban naxals’ to destabilise and weaken India from within. Indian intelligence agencies have the crucial task of defanging these divisive elements within the country.

Negotiations & Diplomacy : Contrasting Approaches

Chinese approach to negotiations, diplomacy, treaties and understandings are completely different from Indian approach.

The Indian approach to treaties and discussions is based on its inherent open culture. Discussions are centred on logic and rationality, an open mind, an attitude of give and take between equals and ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’. Reasonable trade-offs are considered acceptable in negotiations. Any decisions taken during negotiations are considered sacrosanct, to be respected and abided by.

The Chinese approach in contrast is based on their culture and traditions seeped in Confucian hierarchical society. The Chinese believe in the Tianxia concept where their civilisation is assumed to be supreme, China being the centre of the universe, under the Chinese Heaven, and all countries on its borders populated by barbarians, fit only to be vassal states. Diplomacy, negotiations and application of military and economic power are all combined and focussed for benefit of the Chinese empire only and not to an idea of universality. Any means, fair or foul, is acceptable in the achievement of their aim.

Henry Kissinger former Secretary of State of USA, a master negotiator himself said of China:

“Chinese negotiations use diplomacy to weave together political, military and psychological elements into an overall strategic design. Diplomacy to them is the elaboration of a strategic principle. They ascribe no particular significance to the process of negotiations as such; nor do they consider the opening of a particular negotiation a transformational event. They have no emotional difficulty with deadlocks; they consider them the inevitable mechanism of diplomacy. And they patiently take a long view against impatient interlocutors, making time their ally.”

Past treaties and Negotiations

There have been five major treaties between India and China connected with LAC. There have been in addition scores of meetings by army commanders over the years. In the last three months since June there have been five meetings of corps commanders to help rescale and retention on the LAC. However there has been a no reduction in tension on the borders. Chinese intrusions have been increasing year by year. It is clear that the Chinese will not stop their aggression any time in the future.

Way Forward

Some key pointers to keep in mind while approaching negotiations with China:

• To understand Chinese culture and their attitude towards neighbouring countries. Culturally China expects all countries to be subservient to them.
• Understand that China today is economically and militarily powerful. It has managed to infiltrate into and exercise control over many international organisations including UN. It is unabashedly using its clout at every opportunity in every institution and organisation to isolate and decimate Indian interests.
• CCP literally owns China and has unquestioned authority. As people the Chinese have no rights of opinion or agency independent of the state machinery. History reveals that the suffering and deaths of millions of ordinary Chinese are of no consideration or consequence to communist Chinese leadership.
• Chinese leadership recognises only power. India’s policy of appeasement has only worked to China’s advantage. “Chinese detest appeasement, which they view as a sign of weakness and exploit”. (Pravin Sawhney & Gazala Wahab in Dragon on our Doorstep)
• Understand that all agreements arrived during negotiations, treaties signed with all due formalities will be adhered to only if and so long as it suits the Chinese.
• Realise that diplomacy and negotiations are only means to lull India to drop its guard.

Therefore it is imperative that :

• India must always negotiate from a position of strength.
• Avoid any gestures statements or actions that may be taken as an indication of weakness.
• India is a large country and can stand up to anyone.
• India must shed its feeling of inferiority and diffidence, accept its role in the international arena, and pursue not only its own interests, but be prepared to take up the cause of all who have/are been bullied by China. India must highlight the issue of Hong Kong, Taiwan, lend support to countries feeling threatened by China in the South China Sea, including Viet Nam and the Philippines.
• Learn from post 1947 history, how India has been fooled by China into concluding one-sided treaties that have weakened Indian positions repeatedly.
• To not conclude any treaties on security issues without taking the advice of the armed forces and taking them on board.

Foreign relations and national security are not the sole preserve of the ministry of foreign affairs. It must be freed from the clutches of a few who have run Indian security policies to ground. It is incomprehensible that even after multiple blunders in the past, this time around too, the defence minister of India, Rajnath Singh, who met the Chinese defence minister Gen Wei Fenghe on September 04 in Moscow, had no senior Indian Army personnel in his team during negotiations. What is clearly missing still is a clear perspective and definite roadmap in the minds of the leadership on how to deal with the Chinese problem, which is not going to go away any time soon.

 

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Cover Picture:

New road India has built along the Shyok River to Daulet Beg Oldi (DBO) – the most remote and vulnerable area along the LAC in Ladakh, which could boost Delhi’s capability to move men and materiel rapidly in case of a conflict. (Source: BBC)

Featured Image:

Heights near Pangong Tso (Source: The Statesman)

 

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For more insights from Col. C. M. Ramakrishnan read the previous installment of this series here, and other articles by him here.